If you want to price your Burlington home with confidence, start by looking at the absorption rate. It shows how quickly listings like yours are selling right now. When you measure it correctly, you can set a smart list price, plan for days on market, and avoid costly guesswork. In this guide, you’ll learn what absorption rate and months of supply mean, how to calculate them for Burlington and Middlesex County cohorts, and how to use the numbers to shape your strategy. Let’s dive in.
Absorption rate basics
Absorption rate is the pace at which homes sell compared to the number of homes for sale. You’ll often see it paired with months of supply, which converts that pace into how long it would take the current inventory to sell at today’s rate.
- Absorption rate (monthly) = closed sales in period ÷ active listings at period end
- Months of supply = active listings at period end ÷ average monthly closings
Example:
- If there were 30 closed sales in the last 30 days and 90 active listings today, the absorption rate is 30 ÷ 90 = 33.3% per month, and months of supply is 90 ÷ 30 = 3 months. This is an example to show the math, not current market data.
How to interpret months of supply:
- Under about 4 months: seller’s market
- Around 4 to 6 months: balanced market
- Above about 6 months: buyer’s market
Local factors like buyer capacity, mortgage rates, and employment can shift these practical thresholds, so always pair the numbers with local context.
Calculate it for Burlington
Getting the numbers right starts with measuring the right slice of the market. Townwide figures can hide big differences between neighborhoods, property types, and price ranges.
Use the right cohort
Pick a defined cohort before you calculate:
- Property type: single-family, condo, or 2 to 4 unit
- Price band: for example, under $600k, $600k to $1M, or $1M and up
- Geography: Burlington overall, a specific neighborhood, or nearby context like Cambridge–Newton–Framingham and broader Middlesex County
- Product detail: new construction vs resale
Example calculation for a Burlington cohort
- Choose cohort: Burlington single-family homes priced $600k to $1M.
- Pull sales: count closed sales over the last 30 days and the last 90 days.
- Pull inventory: count current active listings in that same cohort today.
- Calculate months of supply twice: once using the past 30 days, and again using the 90-day period averaged to a monthly rate to smooth volatility.
Label the cohort and date any time you share a result. Small shifts in active listings or closings can move months of supply quickly.
Track short and long windows
Use both short windows and longer trends:
- Short windows: 30 to 90 days to spot immediate tightening or loosening
- Long window: trailing 12 months to see seasonality and structural change
Compare today’s months of supply to the 12-month average and to the same month last year. This helps you separate a seasonal bump from a real shift.
What months of supply means for your price
Tie your pricing posture and days-on-market expectations to your cohort’s months of supply.
Under 4 months supply
- Pricing: list at market or slightly above if condition and marketing are top tier.
- Time on market: often days to a couple of weeks.
- Tactics: strong presentation, pre-inspections, professional staging, and clear offer review timing. Minimal concessions.
4 to 6 months supply
- Pricing: at market or modestly below to drive traffic.
- Time on market: several weeks to a few months.
- Tactics: flexible showings, highlight differentiators, be ready to negotiate.
Over 6 months supply
- Pricing: competitive, sometimes below recent comps to stand out.
- Time on market: several months is common.
- Tactics: invest in condition, consider early price adjustments, and offer incentives like closing cost credits when appropriate.
Burlington and Middlesex market context
Numbers are most useful when you read them through local lenses:
- Employment centers: Burlington sits along the Route 128 and I‑95 corridor, where technology and life science employers influence buyer demand.
- Commuting: proximity to major highways and nearby MBTA access in surrounding towns shapes interest by neighborhood.
- Municipal services and amenities: public services and access to local amenities can concentrate demand and lower months of supply in certain areas.
- New construction: planned subdivisions or condo releases can temporarily lift months of supply in specific price bands.
- Seasonality: spring and early summer bring stronger absorption. Compare to the same month last year to avoid misreading seasonal changes.
Strategy by property type and price band
Not every property moves the same way. Adjust to your cohort.
Condominiums
- Watch HOA fees, investor restrictions, and entry-level buyer demand.
- Condo months of supply can move differently than single-family trends in Burlington.
Single-family homes
- Space, layout, and lot size are strong drivers for many buyers.
- Higher price tiers often carry more months of supply than entry-level ranges.
Multi-family properties
- Pricing is sensitive to rents and cap rates.
- Absorption depends on investor appetite and financing conditions.
New construction vs resale
- New builds can take longer to sell depending on incentives and options.
- Resales anchor to recent comparable closed sales.
Seller playbook
Follow a clear, data-first process to set your price and plan your sale.
- Define your cohort: property type, price band, and neighborhood.
- Pull current active inventory and closed sales for the past 30 and 90 days.
- Calculate months of supply and compare to last month, the same month last year, and the 12-month average.
- Select pricing posture:
- Under 4 months and trending down: list at market or slightly above. Prepare for multiple offers and consider a defined offer review time.
- 4 to 6 months: at market or slightly below to generate showings. Expect negotiation.
- Over 6 months or trending up: price to stand out, consider concessions, and invest in presentation.
- Set a marketing timeline and review triggers for adjustments, often at 14 to 21 days.
- Align expectations: likely days on market, negotiation range, and net proceeds at various offer levels.
Buyer playbook
Use months of supply to shape your offer approach.
- Under 4 months: expect competition. Get pre-approved, consider escalation clauses, and act fast. Waive non-critical contingencies only after careful risk review.
- Balanced 4 to 6 months: compare options, keep financing strong, and negotiate on terms or repairs.
- Over 6 months: increase your asks. Explore seller credits, longer inspections, and price negotiation, while recognizing unique homes can still command strength.
Where to get current numbers
For accurate, Burlington-specific inputs, pull data from:
- Local MLS systems for active listings and closed sales in your chosen cohort
- Massachusetts Association of Realtors for monthly town and county reports
- Regional broker reports for additional context
- Town assessor and registry records for transaction history
- Public dashboards that summarize Middlesex County trends for cross-checks
Update your snapshot before every pricing decision. In fast-moving segments, weekly checks help you stay ahead.
Quick checklists
Seller checklist
- Define cohort and pull 30-, 90-, and 12-month views
- Calculate months of supply and compare to trend
- Choose pricing posture and timeline
- Prep property: staging, minor fixes, disclosures, and pre-inspections
- Launch with strong visuals and a clear offer plan
- Review traffic and feedback at 14 to 21 days
Buyer checklist
- Confirm financing and price range
- Track cohort months of supply weekly in competitive niches
- Set strategy: speed, escalation, and contingencies
- Compare properties within the same cohort and price band
- Negotiate terms based on supply and days on market
A precise read on absorption rate and months of supply helps you pick the right price, set realistic timing, and negotiate from a position of strength. If you want a cohort-specific analysis for your Burlington or Middlesex County home, connect with Nancy Fudge for a hands-on review and a data-driven pricing plan.
FAQs
What is absorption rate in real estate?
- It is the share of current inventory that sells in a given period, often expressed monthly. It tells you how quickly listings are being absorbed by buyers.
How do I calculate months of supply for Burlington?
- Divide today’s active listings in your Burlington cohort by the average monthly closings for that same cohort. Use 30- and 90-day windows and note the date.
What months-of-supply range signals a seller’s market?
- Under about 4 months of supply is commonly viewed as a seller’s market, 4 to 6 months is balanced, and above 6 months favors buyers.
Why should I segment by price and property type?
- Townwide averages can hide real differences. Condos, single-family homes, and different price tiers often show very different months-of-supply patterns.
How often should I update my absorption analysis?
- Update at least monthly and before each pricing decision. In fast-moving segments, check weekly to catch changes early.
